Saturday, December 19, 2009

Did the Republicans Miss Out?

Posted by John S. Wilson at 11:42 PM
Health care reform is a done deal. Let's face it nothing can stop it now. Not GOP obstructing partywide, not Lieberman, not Nelson, and not even two feet of snow the weekend of the negotiations.


And while it's true that the democrats could have (and ultimately most likely will) pass this bill without a hint of republican support, is it possible that the GOP missed out on tweaking the bill along the way? I'm inclined to say yes. Evidence lies in the fact that so much negotiation - in fact basically all - was required to placate democrats. (Sure democrats compromised with Susan Collins during committee, but she quickly bailed on supporting once the public option was reinserted).

First, there were the Blue Dog democrats who felt the bill wasn't fiscally responsible. Nevermind the fact that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) scored it as deficit neutral. Then there were the the pro-life democrats such as Rep. Bart Stupak (D. Mich.), Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), and others who felt that without strong language prohibiting the financing of abortion in plans that would comprise the exchange, they wouldn't be able to support the bill.

These were very large hurdles, and all were leapt over without democrats bloodying themselves too much. So where was the GOP? To their credit, they had some ideological issues with the bill: universal insurance doesn't square with their free market beliefs, an individual mandate bucks up against their libertarian flare, more federal control (which doesn't square with the state's rights folks), and tax increases (a republican's kryptonite) were a no go from the beginning.

But leaving the entire bill to democrats and just hoping it wouldn't get passed was a horrific move. Not only will Obama have a substantial legislative victory going into the new year but he'll also have momentum to take on other bills on his agenda. In addition, they missed out on actually shaping the bill. What could they have gotten in a compromise if they had promised five votes? Lower taxes? Less federal control? Extension of health savings accounts? Who knows, they certainly don't.

What is known is that the GOP is banking on an unknown - winning an abundance of seats in the 2010 midterm elections thanks to health care. I don't think that's very likely. Remember the tea parties from the summer? Yeah, I barely do either. They came and went. Voters are far more concerned about jobs and the economy than protesting a bill that many haven't even read. And that's where Obama has another ace in the hole - stimulus money. As much as the stimulus has been derided, the majority of it has yet to be spent. That's not by accident. The goal was to ramp up employment, but the focus was to do so at the right time - before the midterm elections.

So, yes, the GOP did miss out. It will be evident how much come the summer when unemployment is a little lower, democrats are in the midst of introducing more major legislation, and the wind is at Obama's back.
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